Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Google says you'll be riding in an autonomous car within 5 years

Sergey Brin - Google co-founder - believes "You can count on one hand the number of years until people can experience this."  He said that almost exactly one year ago.  The clock is ticking.

I'm really excited about this kind of technology. It's world altering. Autonomous cars don't get distracted by the kids in the back seat, they don't text while driving, are always paying attention and won't drive home hammered after a night of drinking.

There are still a lot of issues to overcome. The Eno Center for Transportation has compiled a paper on the hurdles this fledgling technology still has to sort out.

How an automated car sees the world
Among the issues cited in the report: Cost. The suite of sensors on Google's automated vehicles costs around $70,000.  Add the car itself, and the rest of the supporting technology and the first automated cars will easily head north of $100,000 a pop.

Other obstacles include complex legal issues. If two automated vehicles collide, which one is at fault? Then who do you blame? the 'driver' or the company whose software is in control of the vehicle?  Who pays for the insurance? Can someone hack my car?

Legislation allowing these cars on the road is another huge roadblock.  Currently only three states, Nevada, Florida and California, have laws establishing the legality of, and defining rules for motor vehicles that drive themselves. Given the pace at which our legislative bodies move this is likely to be the biggest problem with a 5 year time table.

As of today, Google spokesmen say their autonomous vehicles have driven over 500,000 miles. The tech is out there, and it's getting better all the time. One day we be zipping around at high speeds on roads clustered with automated vehicles. I think it's coming sooner than some people think, but I believe Mr. Brin's timetable is a bit ambitious - at least for widespread consumer use.

The change is going to be gradual.  We're already seeing automobiles offer options like automatic parallel parking, lane departure warning systems, automatic emergency braking, and blind-spot radar.  These technologies are slowly creeping into our daily lives.